Sweep the League: 2015 SoCal Preview
- Apr 4, 2015
- 4 min read
Then and Now
I had an awakening while watching The Saint on HBO back in 1998, specifically during the scene when Simon and Emma finally got it on. THIS is what chubby, pubescent Ali became? Day-um.
Well, I had a similar "whoa" moment when I peeped SoCal's pitching staff during the 2012 season. C.C. and Tommy Hanson were back for more (in 2012, you could say this without a hint of sarcasm), now joined by reigning AL ROY Jeremy Hellickson, P.Y.T. Clay Buchholz, owner of terrific hair C.J. Wilson and, entering his age-26 season, 17-game winner Yovani Gallardo among others. Not coincidentally, this year represented SoCal's lone playoff appearance to date.
Many faces still remain from the '12 playoff push but the luster has considerably faded on Sabathia, Wilson and Gallardo, as well as on the bats of Ryan Howard, Dan Uggla and Mark Teixeira. Last year's Ryan Braun-Michael Brantley trade backfired to the surprise of probably everyone besides Dustin/Dawgs. But if you ever get too pessimistic in your assessment of the roster, look no further than three dynamite closers (4 if Cecil proves his mettle; 5 if Jake McGee isn't right returning from injury) and some basshole from Dirty Jerz. Here's a fun fact I picked up from a recent Paul Casela piece at SoE: if Trout goes for 25 HR, 100 R and 8 3B this year, he will be the first player EVER to do it in four consecutive seasons. He's 23. Day-um.
Big League Chew
Trout. Mike Trout. Trout comma Mike. What SoCal wouldn't give for that missing strip of DNA from Orphan Black. (This random reference brought to you by me wanting an excuse to Google Images Tatiana Maslany.) But seriously, this guy is so good that when I tweak hitting modifiers in my StatDummy league, I do it specifically to see how it affects his point total. It says a lot about how other-worldly he is that I'm hardly even mentioning Ian Desmond (24 HR at SS last year), Yoenis Cespedes's 702 pts in 2014 or the potential for Kung Fu Panda to drop video-game numbers if everything breaks right this summer in Beantown.
Johnny Cueto probably isn't replicating last season's 890+ points but he shouldn't fall too far and let's now remind Crawfish that he maybe sorta sold short on this workhorse with the unique 'do. The switch might finally flip for Hellboy now that he's in the senior circuit though his below-average 0.78 GO/AO ratio isn't likely to improve playing half his games at the BOB (I know they changed the name like a decade ago, thankyouverymuch.) Gallardo is probably also in for a rough landing considering his flyball tendencies and new digs.
E-I-E-I-O
Wax on: Joey Gallo, 21, was recently ranked #6 by Baseball America on the heels of 2013's 42 bombs and .615 SLG, has a sweet lefty swing capable of launching home run balls that require F16 escorts, and should only miss about three weeks following minor foot surgery.
Wax off: Two of the biggest names in the Cobra Kai farm system are also two of the biggest disappointments in prospect circles. Aaron Hicks was steadfastly ranked high by Baseball America (39th in 2009, 19th in '10, 45th in '11) even though his bat never caught up to his raw skills. He's now 25 and coming off a season in which he hit .215 with 1 HR and .274 SLG in 69 big-league games. His 0.1 Fangraphs WAR was actually 0.7 better from the previous year's lowly half-season debut. The Twins spent all spring saying the starting CF job was his but optioned him out on March 28. They will start the season with a Jordan Schafer-Shane Robinson platoon. Banzai! [Update: Hicks has since been released by SoCal. Not the Twins. They're holding on to that ticket in the hopes that last night's numbers magically change.]
With Hicks, the problem is one of too little: namely contact. As for Luis Heredia, signed out of Mexico for $2.6MM back in 2010, it is one of too much: namely food. Always seen as a 'big boy', Heredia could not build upon a strong 2012 and battled weight (listed at 280 on the West Virginia roster) and command (5.1 BB9 over 65 IP) issues. He managed to shave off 40 pounds before last season but this trimmed everything in kind: MPH off his fastball, which nows sits 91-93; his BB9 rate down to 3.3 but his K9 rate down to an alarming 4.3. He was shut down for more than two weeks earlier in ST to, as Pirates' farm director Larry Broadway put it, "get...in better shape before we started going on to the season."
Who's Next
As of press time, SoCal hasn't officially set his minor league roster, but we'll go out on a limb and pick Adam Lind and Drew Stubbs as non-Gallo players that have the best chance to earn a call up and produce for the club. Lind is technically part of Milwaukee's 1B platoon but should still see close to 500 PA with a chance to climb back over the 20 HR mark. Stubbs will begin the year as Colorado's 4th OF but CarGo is a great bet to spend between a little and all the time on the DL, pushing Drew into a starting spot in the game's best offensive park.
Prediction
Jean-Paul Sartre said "all men are prophets or else God does not exist.” I'm not sure how that relates to a fantasy baseball season preview but everyone knows adding a quote increases the piece's cachet so the kid stays in the picture. As for SoCal (with an 'L'), barring some win-now moves in-season, a sub-.500 record and third straight year of early tee times awaits. Empty hand, indeed.
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