I Hate Mondays: 2015 OverCatZ Preview
The Way We Was
The Costa Concordia ran aground because the captain was being a stereotypical Italian flirt; literally the whole damn world caught yellow fever thanks to "Gangnam Style"; a rag-tag 4th year outfit won the Defectors Cup on the backs of two closers, E5 and Alex Freaking Rios. 2012 sure was a crazy year (and craptastic movie).
no we weren't
In none of Catz's other six seasons, however, has he advanced past the quarterfinals, going one-and-done in 2011, '13 and '14 (twice felled by eventual champion Otto's sword). Tenured club members Edwin Encarnacion, Alexei Ramirez, Jorge de la Rosa, Alex Rios and Martin Prado will again lead the charge in search of greener postseason pastures.
Of the faces that have changed, none leaves a larger wake than Jose Bautista (traded to Pess before the 2011 season in a deal consumed by the Great Internet Fire but clearly lost by Catz) though I'm sure he wouldn't mind still having Jon Lucroy, Luke Gregerson and 2010 models of Danny Espinosa and Dan Haren. Only time will tell whether his recent trades of Melky Cabrera (Willy Adames) and uber-fireman Craig Kimbrel (Chris Carter and Erick Fedde) benefit the team, as well as last summer's Kluber-Baez blockbuster.
Big League Chew
For the 34th consecutive year, Catz's offense will be powered by Edwin Encarnacion and Alexei Ramirez. Chris Carter enters the mix in 2015 and will look to partner with new Astro, and desert-wandering enthusiast, Evan Gattis to provide this lineup with much needed thump. Septuagenarian Yankees Carlos Beltran and Alex Rodriguez will chip in on days when they're not called last minute by Gladys to be a Mahjong sub for that chatterbox Doris who lives down the hall.
The pitching staff headliners are a couple of guys looking to prove 2014 was a sign of things to come rather than a career year. Fangraphs and SweetSpot have already spilled much fancier ink on Jake Arrieta and Collin McHugh so I'll just take this opportunity to laugh at the Mets and Rockies for giving up on the latter so quickly.
Betting (on) the Farm
There is an array of back-end Top 100 prospects to choose from. Mets OF Michael Conforto, an advanced college bat with easy raw power that has not yet materialized in the minor leagues, was plucked from Oregon State with the 10th pick in last year's draft. 19-year-old SS Willy Adames hit .271/.353/.429 with 41 XBH in 125 A-ball games and was an important second piece for Tampa in the David Price trade. Grant Holmes, acquired by Catz last summer in the deal where he shipped out the 2014 AL Cy Young and NL Rookie of the Year winners, was selected by the Dodgers late in the 1st round and went on to strike out 58 in 48 innings over 11 appearances.
One seems to stand out as a cut above the rest: diminutive Nationals starter Reynaldo Lopez. One of the prospect community's top 'helium watch' candidates for 2015, Lopez showed both improved velocity and command during the 2014 season. His 2013 arm soreness seems to be a thing of the past and he could be ranked near the top of many lists come next spring.
The obvious choice for minor leaguer most likely to step in and help the big league club (Catz and Cubs both) is Javier Baez. He's going to need a Rambo-sized machete to cut back his garish K rates but a whopping 25% of his ML hits last year went over the fence. That sort of power from a MI spot is the stuff of wet dreams. Another Cub, converted reliever Neil Ramirez (2014 - 53:17 K:BB, 1.05 WHIP, .184 AVG in 50 IP), also has a chance to be a difference maker if current closer Hector Rondon cannot replicate last year's results.
Prediction
Catz fell at the end of last season but unlike Mrs. Fletcher can get up. Receiving something-anything out of Jayson Werth and Pat Corbin's mid-season return from TJ will go a long towards determining if Catz coasts towards a playoff berth or sweats out the dog days of summer in search of the points wild card. 85-plus wins and a date with a higher seed in early September should await.
