Playoff Preview: Brook vs. Shup
4. Bklyn Royal Giants (112-50)
5. Shüpcity Shüpürrz (94-68)
dark forces conspire to pair last year's finalists in the first round
How They Got Here:
After erasing a 10-game deficit to Otto on their half birthday (August 26 for the uninformed), Brook lost one more than their divisional rivals down the stretch and settled for the #4 seed despite leading the league in points. Their reward? The team that finished the season 3rd in points. Owing to a 4-9 finish and besting Birds in a two-day, in-playoffs tiebreaker, Shup has sealed a rematch of the 2013 Defectors Cup finals. One of these teams will spend the better part of the fall ruing the one game by which they lost their division. (Or being a good Samaritan and spotting a Yahoo score correction that helped their rival.)
How They'll Win:
For Shup it's the pitching. Even without Yu Darvish they will trot out a murderer's row of King Felix and Jon Lester (twice, though the first is a H2H matchup), Chris Tillman 2x, Stephen Strasburg (PHI), Hisashi Iwakuma (@TEX) and Doug Fister (ATL), just to name the brightest stars. Oh, and something about Aroldis Chapman's 103 cheddar and Aaron Sanchez potentially being sprinkled into Toronto's closer casserole (granted they have any save opps during the week). Also, they have 5 SP going in the first two days, which probably means the advantage in number of starts.
On the other side of the coin...more pitching. Two starts for Scherzer and Volquez (this might actually be a good thing. In 2014. Crazy.) and deGrom. One apiece for Sale, Greinke, Kluber (this might actually not be a good thing. In 2014. Crazy.), Bumgarner and Shields. The offense has the potential to blow up with Lucroy, Dozier and Ellsbury all not playing too horribly at the moment.
How They'll Lose:
Offensive offenses. Shup has gone heavy on pitching, leaving a lineup with no options besides B.J. Upton, Logan Morrison, Wilmer Flores and the looming scepter of Chris Coghlan getting hurt or turning into his 2011-'13 self. There're also the natural concerns when your offense is plucked from just three MLB rosters (three Nationals, two Braves and two Mariners): their teams go cold with the sticks, so does yours.
Brook has an extra bat for the series but Brandon Phillips rarely takes it to the plate with him these days. Kolten Wong recently sprained his neck running into the outfield and falling over. Miggy's near past consists of one massive game surrounded by duds and complaints of injury. There are two each of Twins and Brewers hitters. There is a very good chance Joaquin Benoit will not pitch during the week (or regular season, no one knows and Bud Black isn't talking). And an even-realer chance that LaTroy Hawkins will pitch during the series. The coup de grâce, however: Sale, Shoemaker, Colon and Shields' second September starts all fall on September 10.
How It'll Shake Out:
Shup's offensive shortcomings will not cause a gap too wide to ford, and his extra starts (especially Hernandez's and Lester's) will win the day. In the highest-scoring opening round matchup, Shup will advance by a small margin (<30 points) and get a modicum of payback for last year's heartrending conclusion.
